CanAm Challenge 2016 Youngstown Yacht Club Regatta Forecast

Prepared by: WIVB Chief Meteorologist Todd Santos 
   Welcome to a fast looking kickoff day from the Lower Niagara River into western Lake Ontario.  Beginning just before sunrise there will be the potential for a few spotty showers/t-storms that could produce some strong wind gusts.  The good news is that the latest timing favors much of the storm energy to be out of and mainly to the SE of the Youngstown area by around 8am.  While there will continue to be a chance for a pop up storm during the day and race management will need to remain vigilant, the better chance for storms to fire up will be over land with storms generally moving away from the racing area. Due to a steady SW 10-16kt with gusts to around 25kt overnight into sunrise Friday, there will be some light wave action in the lake just out from the lakeshore of around 1-2ft, though the SW wind direction will limit that wave height substantially.  Skies will start off mostly cloudy and a bit more sunshine should open up into the afternoon.
10am-5pm Friday 7/22
Wind: WSW 12-17kt G24 with a trend to the W by mid afternoon
Current:  Latest GLERL surface current model is predicting about 0.2 – 0.4kt of current out of the W once racers exit the influence of the Lower Niagara River.
Air Temperature: 10am: 74°  3pm: 81°
Water Temperature: 69°-73°
10am-5pm Saturday 7/23
A cold front is currently expected to cross the race area between 6-7am Saturday AM marked by little more than a clocking breeze and diminishing clouds.  Pressure still looks good for the day under sunny skies.
Wind: W 8-14kt G18 with a trend to the WNW into the afternoon
Surface Current: Latest GLERL surface current model is predicting about 0.1 – 0.3kt of current out of the W once racers exit the influence of the Lower Niagara River.
                         Boats racing in Course D and at the north end of Course B will likely see little to no distinguishable current outside of the river effluent.
Water Temperature: 69°-73°
Air Temperature: 10am: 75°  3pm: 83°
10am-5pm Sunday 7/24
This is the trickiest day for a breeze forecast as at least a couple models bring the breeze around to the ENE at around 4-8kt with a chance to build to 8-12 by early afternoon.  There may be a competing land breeze, so be sure to check back for an update tomorrow as these have the potential to converge over the racing area sometimes creating a dead zone. Wind driven surface currents are looking around .1kt or less forSunday and air temps will be back in the low 80’s.
While much of Sunday will see sunshine and a few more clouds into the afternoon we are keeping an eye on a developing chance for showers overnight into Monday. Currently the chance for rain should remain low until well after sunset Sunday evening. The timing on this will be watched, so check back as every day this forecast will be updated with the latest timing for those planning to pack up and sail or drive home after awards.
Best of luck to all!